Marija Trpkova- Nestorovska, Borce Trenovski, Biljana Tashevska


Demographic transition is defined as shift from high birth and death rates and increasing population to very low
birth and death rates and decreasing population, as a country progresses from a pre-industrial to an industrialized
economic system and significant increase in the urbanization. It is consisted of five stages.
The analysis provides revised information about the stages of demographic transition for each of the twenty
eight EU countries, and also examines whether the transition model is still compatible with the current demographic
situation. The countries are classified in five groups according to their demographic similarity. Panel
regression models are used to test the statistical significance of the demographic trends from the demographic
transition model. While confirming the demographic transition model or describing the variations from the theory,
the analysis should give guidance for further population development and its implications on the economy
and the society.
Also, there is an insight given on the impact of the migration on demographic transition and European population,
since immigrants tend to have a massive impact on population in Europe in the past decades. While some
countries benefit from constant influx of immigrants, others face severe consequences in form of ageing population,
fertility decline, weaker economy and labor shortage.


electronic banking;profitability; electronic financial services

Full Text:



l Asandului, Laura. "Population ageing in Romania: facts and analysis." The 6th International Days of Statistics and

Economics, Prague (2012).

l Bongaarts, John. "Population aging and the rising cost of public pensions." Population and Development Review 30,

no. 1 (2004): 1-23.

l Brooks, C. (2014): Introductory Econometric for Finance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

l Central Biro for Statistics (2015). Relatively high population growth due to migration. cbs.nl.


(accessed 27th of November, 2018).

l Długosz, Zbigniew, and Sławomir Kurek. (2006). "Demographic ageing in European union countries." Europa xxi:

l Dyson, Tim. "The role of the demographic transition in the process of urbanization." Population and development

review 37 (2011): 34-54.

l Estonian Public Broadcasting (2015). “Estonia among most vulnerable countries to effects of ageing population,

agency says”. News.err.ee. https://news.err.ee/116893/estonia-among-most-vulnerable-countries-to-effects-of-ageing-

population-agency-says (accessed 27th of November, 2018).

l European Commission (2018). National Demographic Strategy of the Republic of Bulgaria (2006-2020).

ec.europa.eu. file:///C:/Users/Marija/Desktop/docl_7519_526832330.pdf, Accessed 27th of November, 2018.

l European Demographic Data Sheet (2018). populationeurope.org, Accessed 02nd of December, 2018.

l Eurostat (2018). Immigration by age group, sex and country of birth (online database). ec.europa.eu/Eurostat.

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/submitViewTableAction.do (accessed 28th of November, 2018)

l Frątczak, Ewa. "The aging process of the Polish population." Demographic Studies 2, no. 142 (2002): 3-28.

l Financial Times (2017). Germany leads way as EU population rises to 512m. ft.com.

https://www.ft.com/content/417cab49-36e6-32e6-94a6-25040123bb85 (accessed 28th of November, 2018).

l Financial Times (2015). Portugal faces ‘perfect demographic storm’. ft.com. https://www.ft.com/content/657b9066-

df5-11e5-91ac-a5e17d9b4cff (accessed 28th of November, 2018).

l Flood, Rebecca (2017). Shock birth rates shows Greeks may be dying out over IMPOSED AUSTERITY.

express.co.uk. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/798318/Greece-birth-rate-dying-economy-austerity-EU-debtpopulation-

crisis (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Focus on Belgum (2017). Did you know that the belgian population is constantly on the rise? focusonbelgium.be.

https://focusonbelgium.be/en/facts/did-you-know-belgian-population-constantly-rise (accessed 29th of November,


l Golini, Antonio. "Demographic trends and population policies." Futures 33, no. 1 (2001): 27-41.

l Hablicsek, László. "Demographics of population ageing in Hungary." (2004).

l Irish Examiner (2018). Ireland's population growth five times EU average. irishexaminer.com. https://www.irishexaminer.

com/ireland/irelands-population-growth-five-times-eu-average-472747.html (accessed 29th of November,


l Kenc, Turalay, and Serdar Sayan. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: an overlapping

generations CGE analysis." Journal of Policy Modeling 23, no. 6 (2001): 677-702.

l Kokkinidis, Tasos (2017). The Dwindling Greeks: Alarming Study on Population in 2050. greece.greekreporter.com.


(accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Konrad Adenauer Foundation (2013). Demographic Trends in Estonia. Kas.de. https: //www. kas.de/c/ document

_library/get_file?uuid=28b94892-9ac5-c53f-76ea-6e7b470c2e87&groupId=252038 (accessed 27th of November,


l Luxembourg Public (2016). Luxembourg's population is growing. http://luxembourg.public.lu. http://luxembourg.public.

lu/en/actualites/2016/03/22-population-luxembourg/index.html (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (2015). Finland has the slowest population growth in the Nordic countries. stm.fi.

https://stm.fi/en/artikkeli/-/asset_publisher/suomen-vaesto-kasvaa-hitaimmin-pohjoismaista (accessed 29th of

November, 2018).

l Mirkin, Barry, and Mary Beth Weinberger. "The demography of population ageing." publicado en Population Bulletin

of the United Nations 42, no. 43 (2001): 37-53.

l Murgić, Jure, Tomislav Jukić, Spomenka Tomek-Roksandić, Mate Ljubičić, and Zvonko Kusić. "The ageing of

Croatian population." Collegium antropologicum 33, no. 2 (2009): 701-705.

l Mohdin, Aamna (2018). As migration tumbles, the UK population growth rate drops to its lowest level since 2004.

Total-croatia-news.com. https://www.total-croatia-news.com/politics/28233-cia-croatia-s-emigration-statisticsamong-

worst-in-europe (accessed 27th of November, 2018)

l Mohdin, Aamna (2018). The EU countries that desperately need migrants to avoid shrinkage—and those that don’t.

qz.com. https://qz.com/1325640/the-european-countries-that-desperately-need-migrants-to-avoid-demographicdecline-

and-those-that-dont/ (accessed 02nd of December, 2018)

l Pavlić, Vedran (2018). CIA: Croatia’s Emigration Statistics among Worst in Europe. qz.com.

https://qz.com/1317914/uk-immigration-slowdown-hits-britains-population-growth-rate/ (accessed 28th of

November, 2018).

l Pitheckoff, Natalie. "Aging in the Republic of Bulgaria." The Gerontologist 57, no. 5 (2017): 809-815.

l Radio Praha (2017). Migrants biggest factor in rise in Czech population. radio.cz.

https://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/migrants-biggest-factor-in-rise-in-czech-population (accessed 28th of

November, 2018).

l Reher, David S (2004). "The demographic transition revisited as a global process." Population, space and place 10,

no. 1: 19-41.

l Reher, David S (2011). "Economic and social implications of the demographic transition." Population and development

review 37: 11-33.

l Reuters (2018). Spain's population grows for second straight year due to immigration. reuters.com.


to-immigration-idUSKBN1JL136 (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Romei, Valentina (2016). Eastern Europe has the largest population loss in modern history. ft.com.

https://www.ft.com/content/70813826-0c64-33d3-8a0c-72059ae1b5e3 (accessed 02nd of December, 2018).

l Roser, Max and Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban (2018): "World Population Growth". Published online at OurWorldInData.org.

Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth' (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l South EU Summit (2018). Migration Creates Net-Positive Population Growth for France. southeusummit.com.

https://www.southeusummit.com/europe/france/migration-creates-net-positive-population-growth-france/ (accessed

th of November, 2018).

l Spectator (2014). Slovakia’s population would drop 14 percent if immigration were unregulated, a poll says. spectator.

sme.sk. https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20050668/slovakias-population-would-drop-14-percent-if-immigration-wereunregulated-

a-poll-says.html (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Statistical Office of Republic Slovenia (2015). Projections 2015: in 2080 population down, the share of the elderly up.

stat.si. https://www.stat.si/StatWeb/en/News/Index/6584 (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l Times of Malta (2018). Increase in Malta population more than 15 times that of the EU. timesofmalta.com.


the-eu.684039 (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l The Irish Times (2015). Poland’s people emigrate as its population flatlines - time for new policies? irishtimes.com.


2067048 (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l The Local (2018). Italy 'almost at zero' population growth. thelocal.it. https://www.thelocal.it/20150616/italy-almost- 51

CEA Journal of Economics

at-zero-population-growth (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l The Local (2018). German population has grown by two million since 2015 due to immigration. thelocal.de.


(accessed 28th of November, 2018).

l The Local (2016). Growing immigration will 'keep Austria young. thelocal.at. https://www.thelocal.at/20161123/growing-

immigration-will-keep-austria-young (accessed 28th of November, 2018).

l The Local (2015). Immigration behind record population growth. thelocal.se. https://www.thelocal.se/20150219/immigration-

behind-record-population-growth-in-sweden (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l The Migration Observatory (2018). The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk.


(accessed 28th of November, 2018).

l Thompson, Warren S. (1929): "Population." American Journal of Sociology 34, no. 6 959-75.

l Uutiset (2017). Immigration boosts Finnish population to 5.5 million. yle.fi. https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/immigration_

boosts_finnish_population_to_55_million/9795849 (accessed 29th of November, 2018).

l World Bank (2018). World Development Indicators (online database) available from: http://databank.worldbank.

org/data/reports.aspx?source=World-Development-Indicators (accessed 27th of November, 2018).

l Worldview.Stratfor (2016). People: France's Advantage over Germany. worldview.stratfor.com. https://worldview.

stratfor.com/article/france-germany-population-demographics-europe-eu-power (accessed 29th of November,



  • There are currently no refbacks.