Ismet Gocer, Tugba Akin


The fluctuations in oil prices have potentially significant effect on macroeconomic money meters of countries. At the present time, production and economic growth ease off especially in China and in the world, the USA started to produce oil shale, a substitute for conventional crude oil. In the meantime, OPEC decided to keep production quotas intact and consequently crude oil prices declined to 33 USD in January 2016 with respect to 147 USD in June 2008. In this case, Russian Ruble significantly weakened against U.S. dollar and Euro; then, Saudi Arabia has declared a huge deficit in its budget. Therefore changes in oil prices should be monitored closely as an important macroeconomic variable. In this study, the effects of oil prices in first seven net oil exporters’ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Nigeria, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Venezuela) on national income, export and political risk structure were analyzed with a new generation of panel data analysis for the period 1998-2015. At the end, it was found that change of oil prices impacts macroeconomic variables of countries simultaneously but it impacts political stability of countries in different directions.


Oil Prices, Politic Risk, Export, GDP

Full Text:



Bai, Jushan and Perron, Pierre, “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, Vol. 66 No.1(1998): 47-78. Bai, Jushan and Ng, Serena, “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”, Econometrica, Vol. 72 No. 4 (2004) : 1127-1177. Ball, Laurence and Mankiw, N. Gregory, “Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks”, (No. w4168), National Bureau of Economic Research (1992). Basher, Syed A. and Westerlund, Joakim , “Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 26 (2009): 506-513. Breitung, Jörg, “A Moneymetric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors in Panel Data”, Econometric Reviews, Vol. 24 No. 2 (2005) : 151-173. Breusch, T.Stanley and Pagan, A.Rodney, “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol.47 (1980): 239-53. Breuer, J.Boucher, McNown, Robert and Wallace, Myles, “Series-Specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.64 No.5(2002): 527-546. Brückner, Markus, Ciccone, Antonio and Tesei, Andrea, “Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.94 No.2 (2012): 389-399. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep L., Barrio-Castro, Del and Lopez-Bazo, Enrique, “Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita”, Econometrics Journal, Vol.8 (2005): 159-175. Charemza, Wojciech and Deadman, Derek, New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression (1997), Second Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing, Chelthenham, UK. Choi, In, “Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.20 (2001): 229-272. Conti, A. Maria, Neri, Stefano. and Nobili, Andrea, “Why is Inflation so Low in The Euro Area?”, Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (2015), (Working Paper) No: 1019. Cunado, Juncal and De Gracia, F. Perez, “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries”, TheQuarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 45 No.1 (2005): 65-83. Dibooğlu, Sel and Aleisa, Eisa, “Oil Prices, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Saudi Arabia”, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol.22 No.1(2004): 50-62. Eberhardt, Markus and Bond, Stephen, “Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator”, MPRA Paper (2009), No. 17870. Eğilmez, Mahfi, “Economy of Oil”, Kendime Yazılar (2014), Göçer, İsmet and Bulut, Şahin (2015), “Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Russian Economy: Cointegration and Symetrical Causality Analysis with Multiple Structural Break”, Çankırı Karatekin University, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol.5 No.2 (2015): 721-748. Güloğlu, Bülent and İspir, M.Serdar, “Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specifc Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey”, Ege Academic Review, Vol.11 No.2 (2011): 205-215. Gürses, Uğur, “Hidden Background of Opec Decisions: Oil Wars” (2014), Hadri, Kaddour, “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3 (2000): 148-161. Hakkio, Craig S. and Mark Rush, (1991), “Is the Budget Defict Too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 29 (1991): 429-445. Husted, Steven (1992), “The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis,” The Review of Economics & Statics, February (1992): 159-166. Im, Kyung So, Pesaran, M.Hashem and Shin, Yongcheol, “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 115 No.1 (2003): 53-74. International Monetay Found (IMF), “Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central Asia”. World Economic and Financial Surveys, October, (2015),


  • There are currently no refbacks.