• Mihaela SIMIONESCU Senior Researcher at Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy
Keywords: unemployment, occupation, Bayesian model, fixed effects model


This paper brings as novelty for economic literature the identification of the unemployment and occupation determinants by taking into account variables that are measured at sectorial level. The analysis for Romania is based on the stochastic search variable selection and it is made on two sub-periods (1992-2008 and 20082014), because of the changes in the methodology for economic activities classification. The increase of employed female population in manufacturing industry had the highest impact of unemployment decrease over 1992-2008. In the same period, the highest influence on occupation rate is given by the occupied population in agriculture and forestry. Starting with 2008 till 2014, the highest influence on occupation rate is given by the female occupied population in extractive industry. There are individual effects in time that influence the unemployment and occupation on sectors, the economic crisis having an important impact on these variables, according to the fixed effects model for 2008-2014.


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