MACROABC - MK - 2007, A MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF MACEDONIA
Keywords: macroeconomic modelling, behavioural equations, simulations, scenario building
AbstractMacroabc-MK is an empirical macroeconomic model of Macedonia. The August2007 version is the fruit of the co-operation between Macedonian economists from Sector for Economic Policies and Regulatory Reform of the Secretariat General of the Government of Macedonia (GoM), Center for Economic Analyses (CEA), Department of Economics, Faculty of Law, University Ss Cyril and Methodius (Un C&M), and National Bank of Macedonia (NBRM), and Dutch economists from Micromacro Consultants (MMC), based on Macroabc models of other countries like the Netherlands, Poland, EU15, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Namibia, Curacao, Aruba and Suriname. So small as well as big countries in four continents. In this article the background of the model is briefly explained: the organisation in several sheets, the consistency framework, the forecasting part and the main behavioural equations. An important role in this model played competitiveness: thanks to increase of productiv ity and decrease of taxes the domestic inflation is low and this stimulates exports, and then disposable income, followed by increase of consumption and investments. And thanks to the growth of exports, investments and consumption GDP goes up. The model can be used to make an Outlook and policy scenarios. For example it is used to calculate the impact of Government Programme 2006-2010 on the economy, and then the modelautomatically produces the output tables including real GDP growth, inflation, employment growth, effects on government revenues, expenditures and deficit, the Balance of Payments, foreign reserve stock, Government debt, number of unemployed.The model is running till 2012, but many coefficients are still preliminary. So Macedonian economist can improve this model by analyzing the macroeconomic Macedonian time series that are in the model.